I have to admit that I have no idea what's going to happen. We have commercial/industrial RE problems; we have more ARM resets to come; we have Warren Buffet saying 09 and 10 are going to be terrible; we have GM sidling closer and closer to Chapter 11.
In retrospect I think that it's going to look like the Fed and Treasury made a big mistake, when they gave in to those who were complaining about moral hazard and allowed Lehman to go under. It kind've looks to me like the overseas liquidity that was floating us has just disappeared, not to come back except through T-bills. That would mean that the only source to finance the US trade deficit will be governmental, which means enormous federal deficits and borrowing indefinitely. Not good.
Let's hope we get plug-in hybrids going ASAP, to start work on eliminating our oil import portion of the deficit.
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